California's ballot could be a blockbuster next November

Call it a dream for California political consultants, a nightmare for voters or an electoral extravaganza: The November 2016 ballot could feature a bigger crop of statewide propositions than at any time in the past decade.

"The voters pamphlet is going to look like the Encyclopaedia Brittanica," said Steve Maviglio, a Democratic campaign strategist.

The list of measures is very much a work in progress. Most campaigns are still gathering voter signatures or waiting for their proposals to be vetted by state officials.

But political strategists have identified at least 15 -- perhaps as many as 19 --measures that all have a shot at going before voters next fall.

The last time California’s ballot was that long was in November 2004, when there were 16 propositions. The March 2000 ballot had 20.

Here are the expected 2016 ballot initiatives

A number of political forces help explain why so many are lined up now. For starters, there’s the 2011 law that moved everything but measures written by the Legislature to the general election ballot. As a result, June primary ballots are now almost barren of contentious campaigns.

There is also a lingering hangover from the state's record-low voter turnout in 2014: a new and extremely low number of voter signatures needed to qualify an initiative for the ballot.

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"There’s no real obstacle this time," said Beth Miller, a Republican campaign consultant.

State law sets the signature threshold at a percentage of votes cast in the most recent gubernatorial election. That has lowered the bar to a level not seen since 1975, opening the door of direct democracy more widely for activists with smaller wallets.

“It’s made it cheaper to qualify an initiative,” said Gale Kaufman, a longtime Democratic campaign consultant who is leading the charge on initiatives to legalize marijuana and prolong a temporary tax increase approved by voters in 2012.

Which of the likely propositions might become a centerpiece campaign next year remains unclear; only five have qualified for the ballot. But perhaps a dozen more are close to securing a spot or have substantial funding behind their signature-gathering efforts.

The effort to legalize recreational use of marijuana, boosted recently by former Facebook and Napster executive Sean Parker, will undoubtedly make national headlines. So, too, might the effort spearheaded by Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom to ban the possession and sale of large ammunition clips for guns and require background checks on those who buy ammunition.

Tax measures also typically have high profiles. Last week, an alliance of teachers, state and local employees, hospitals and doctors announced a new push to extend the 2012 tax hike. Healthcare groups are backing a proposal to raise California’s cigarette tax by $2 a pack.

Other proposals form a political potpourri of ideas and issues. School groups have qualified a $9-billion school construction and renovation bond measure; organized labor and several Democratic officeholders are backing a proposed increase in the state minimum wage; and two efforts would impose new rules of public disclosure on the legislative process and campaign contributions.

There is a also a closely watched effort to lower the cost of taxpayer-subsidized prescription drugs, with the pharmaceutical industry promising a well-funded campaign to defeat it.

Wild cards that could dramatically affect the state’s electoral landscape include a much-discussed move to substantially shrink the pensions of public employees.

All of this may be the equivalent of a full employment act for political professionals, but a lengthy and dense ballot can turn off voters.

"What ends up happening is voter fatigue," Kaufman said.

Political scientists say voters simply give up on trying to follow so many disparate propositions and skip many of them -- or simply vote no.

A plethora of ballot measures also could raise the costs of television and online advertising to record levels, leaving initiative backers scrambling to raise cash.

"There’s only so many places you can tap the well," said Fiona Hutton, a public affairs strategist in Los Angeles. "And if there are multiple measures, how far does that donor base get stretched?"

And more campaigns will be competing for a limited amount of television and radio ad time.

"Some campaigns are never going to get enough oxygen to be able to inform voters," said Rob Stutzman, a GOP consultant working on the school bond effort.

Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether a 2014 law designed to offer a release valve for the pressure of initiative campaigns will have any effect. It allows backers of an initiative to withdraw their measure if they strike a deal on similar legislation at the state Capitol.

"Are there things that there’s an appetite for the Legislature to deal with?" said strategist Miller. "It's a new wrinkle, and it’s not one that anyone’s ever dealt with before.

By John Myers, Los Angeles Times
Via http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-california-ballot-measures-2016-20151108-story.html

2014 California Ballot Measure Results!

California voters on Tuesday approved billions in borrowing for water projects, the creation of a tighter budget reserve fund, and lighter penalties for drug crimes and theft while rejecting measures to regulate health insurance rates and to drug test doctors while raising a cap on medical malpractice payouts.

Two ballot initiatives passed by the Legislature and promoted by Gov. Jerry Brown more vigorously than he campaigned for his own re-election – a water bond and a measure creating a rainy day reserve fund for state budgets – passed handily. You can read more about the water bond here.

A pair of health-related measure that ignited massive spending lost by large margins.

Proposition 45 sought to empower California’s elected insurance commissioner to oversee health insurance rates, prompting a well-funded opposition campaign by the insurance industry. Proposition 46 was the latest flareup in a long-smoldering fight between doctors and lawyers over California’s medical malpractice laws. In addition to lifting a $250,000 cap on pain-and-suffering damages recoverable in malpractice lawsuits, the measure would have imposed mandatory physician drug testing.

Proposition 45 lost by nearly 20 points. The gap for Proposition 46 was close to 35 points.

With California in the midst of a years-long effort to reduce prison overcrowding, proponents of Proposition 47 said the measure would improve criminal justice efforts by converting petty theft and drug possession from felonies to misdemeanors, while targeting savings at programs to reduce truancy and substance abuse. Despite law enforcement warnings that the measure would reduce penalties for possession of date-rate drugs and gun theft, Proposition 47 led by 17 percentage points in unofficial returns.

Voters rejected Proposition 48, a referendum that targeted a single casino but carried a broader context.

The “no” vote on the measure blocks a pact with the state to allow the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians to operate a Vegas-style casino miles from the tribe’s existing land. Opponents of the facility warned that the deal would lead to a spike of new casinos near urban areas. Some tribes with nearby casinos poured millions of dollars into the campaign to defeat Propositio 48.

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3577731.html#storylink=cpy

California Proposition 48, Referendum to Overturn Indian Gaming Compacts

California Proposition 48, the Referendum to Overturn Indian Gaming Compacts, is on the November 4, 2014 ballot in California as a veto referendum. If signed by the required number of registered voters and timely filed with the Secretary of State, this petition will place on the statewide ballot a challenge to a state law previously approved by the Legislature and the Governor. The law must then be approved by a majority of voters at the next statewide election to go into effect. The law ratifies two gaming compacts (with the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians, and the Wiyot Tribe); and it exempts execution of the compacts, certain projects, and intergovernmental agreements from the California Environmental Quality Act. (13-0007).

If the measure is approved by the state's voters, it will:

• Ratify AB 277 (Ch. 51, Stats. 2013)
• Ratify two gaming compacts between California and, respectively, the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians, and the Wiyot Tribe.
• Exempt execution of the compacts, certain projects, and intergovernmental agreements from the California Environmental Quality Act.

This measure is a veto referendum; this means that a "yes" vote is a vote to uphold or ratify the contested legislation (AB 277) that was enacted by the California State Legislature while a "no" vote is a vote to overturn AB 277.

Read more about the veto referendum by visiting: http://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_48,_Referendum_to_Overturn_Indian_Gaming_Compacts_(2014)

California Proposition 45, the Public Notice Required for Insurance Company Rates Initiative

California Proposition 45, the Public Notice Required for Insurance Company Rates Initiative, is on the November 4, 2014 ballot in California as an initiated state statute. This initiative “requires Insurance Commissioner’s approval before health insurer can change its rates or anything else affecting the charges associated with health insurance, provides for publicnotice, disclosure, and hearing, and subsequent judicial review, and exempts employer large group health plans."

If approved by voters, the initiative would:

Require changes to health insurance rates, or anything else affecting the charges associated with health insurance, to be approved by the California Insurance Commissioner before taking effect

Provide for public notice, disclosure, and hearing on health insurance rate changes, and subsequent judicial review

Require sworn statement by health insurer as to accuracy of information submitted to Insurance Commissioner to justify rate changes

Exempt employer large group health plans under any circumstances

Prohibit health, auto, and homeowners insurers from determining policy eligibility or rates based on lack of prior coverage or credit history. Premiums for health insurance are at an all time high, benefits are going down, and many Californians cannot even get health insurance at any price. The public should expect a certain level of accountability and transparency for the skyrocketing rates being charged, especially when rates have been rising five times faster than the rate of inflation.

To read more about the bill, visit:

  http://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_45,_Public_Notice_Required_for_Insurance_Company_Rates_Initiative_(2014)

California Proposition 2: Rainy Day Budget Stabilization Fund Act

The Rainy Day Budget Stabilization Fund Act, a ballot proposition on the November 4, 2014 statewide ballot in California as a legislatively-referred constitutional amendment, would force the Legislature to put 3 percent of revenue into the rainy day fund. Budget stabilization or "rainy day" funds allow states to set aside excess revenue for use in times of unexpected revenue shortfall or budget deficit (http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/state-local/fiscal/rainy-day.cfm).

The measure, upon voter approval, would alter the state’s existing requirements for the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA), as established by Proposition 58. The BSA is a rainy day fund. ACA 1 would also establish a Public School System Stabilization Account (PSSSA). This proposition would require annual transfer of state general fund revenues to the budget stabilization account. It would also require half the revenues to be used to repay state debts. Additionally, it would limit the use of remaining funds to emergencies or budget deficits.

Major provisions of this initiative will:
· Transfer 3 percent of General Fund Revenues to the Budget Stabilization Fund;
· Strengthen Rainy Day fund with “unanticipated revenues”;
· Increase size of the Rainy Day fund;
· Provide flexibility in “Bad Budget Years”;
· Limits the use of Reserve Funds;
· Limits the use of excess revenues not deposited into the Rainy Day fund;
· And prohibits the Legislature from raiding the Rainy Day fund.

As for fiscal impact, the Assembly Budget Committee estimates that: “This provision would result in increased funding in the states’ “rainy day” reserve funds. It would also increase state spending on repaying budgetary borrowing and debt, and infrastructure projects. Finally, the additional reserve would reduce the extent of state cash borrowing, allowing for some savings in the short-term cash borrowing costs.” There would be no impact on the current state budget (http://www.caltax.org/members/Rainy_%20Day_Fund_Initiative_Analysis.pdf).

Read more about the Rainy Day Budget Stabilization Fund here: http://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_44,_Rainy_Day_Budget_Stabilization_Fund_Act_(2014)

The Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act of 2014

Proposition 47: The Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act of 2014 is an initiative for the November 2014 California ballot. Over the last 25 years there have been 1,000 changes made to the California penal code, many of those have made misdemeanor offenses become felonies. As a result, people of color have been highly impacted and continue reap the negative affects of mass incarceration in California. Annually, we spend $10 billion on the prison system with more than 130,000 people in prison at a yearly cost of $62,396.

Proposition 47 will permanently reduce incarceration and shift one $1 billion over the next five years alone to K-12 school programs and mental health and drug treatment. More specifically, Prop. 47 will:

• Reclassify six petty theft crimes including: petty theft , shoplifting, receipt of stolen property, writing a bad check, fraud, and drug possession (all under $950). 
• Create retroactive sentencing to those currently incarcerated and not at risk to public safety and any Californian with prior felony convictions (listed above).
• Re-allocate funds that will support rehabilitation; 65% will be shifted into mental health and drug treatment; 25% will support K-12 school programs; and 10% will go to victim services.

Hundreds of thousands of Californians that have paid the time for their crimes will now be able to fix their records which will ultimately eliminate the barriers to employment, housing, student loans, and public assistance. Prop. 47 will save billions in tax payers dollars and reduce the rates of recidivism so that children will not continue in the cycles of incarceration. 

For more information on The Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act visit: http://www.safetyandschools.com/

Hike in California 'car tax' would raise up to $4 billion

A proposed ballot measure to more than double California's vehicle license fee would raise $3 billion to $4 billion annually for state and local transportation programs, according to estimates by the Legislative Analyst's Office.

Both versions of the proposed ballot measure by Transportation California would phase in a surcharge to the fee, charging motorists an extra one percent of the vehicle's value each year. The fee has been .65 percent of a vehicle's market value since the late 1990s, with a temporary increase to 1.15 percent from May 2009 through June 2011.

Transportation California's Will Kempton, a former Caltrans director, has said that the measure's supporters will decide this month whether to commit the money to gather signatures to qualify the proposal for the November 2014 ballot. Signature collection could begin after the release of titles and summaries for the measure, which is expected Jan. 13.

Proponents would have up to 150 days to collect 807,615 valid voter signatures to qualify for the 2014 ballot.

PHOTO: Traffic runs along the southbound 110 Freeway towards downtown Los Angeles, April 28, 2005. Associated Press/ Mark J. Terrill