If Gov. Jerry Brown's
income- and sales-tax proposition gets rejected by voters, all of the
state's public education will take a cut, not just K-12, which has
gotten much of the attention in discussions of the potential fallout.
The Nov. 6 ballot initiative includes a proposed quarter-cent
sales-tax and income-tax increase on individuals making more than
$250,000 a year.
The current California budget is "balanced" based on the
assumption that voters will approve the measure. If they don't, there
will be $5.5 billion in cuts to public education.
"If it fails, we will likely see two separate waves of
consequences," Cal State San Bernardino spokesman Sid Robinson said.
"The first stage will come if there is a midyear cut."
Cal State San Bernardino has anticipated that this could
happen and has set aside one-time reserves to address some of the issue
for the current year.
Part of the reserve funds come from deferred maintenance
projects and delaying equipment purchases. In addition, the CSU Board of
Trustees has already approved a 5 percent tuition increase, beginning
in January, if Prop. 30 fails," Robinson said.
It gets worse from there.
"The consequences will be much more severe in 2013-14. The
trigger cut to the CSU will be another $250 million. This will mean a
roughly $10 million reduction to Cal State San Bernardino's state
funding."
If Proposition 30 fails, CSU officials estimate about 20,000 fewer students will be able to attend in the fall of 2013. About 165,000 spots in classes and 5,500 course sections would be cut.
"For CSUSB, that could mean as many as 800 students will not be
admitted. We also estimate that our campus will be forced to drop about
375 course sections, and that class sizes will increase to as much as a
30-to-1 student- to-teacher ratio," Robinson said.
There may also be personnel cuts at CSUSB.
"If voters choose to reject Proposition 30, Cal Poly Pomona
will face an additional funding reduction of $12 million, which is more
than the operating budget of our largest college," university spokesman
Tim Lynch said. "That's on top of the nearly $55 million that has been
slashed in recent years. The university has been a very good steward of
its resources, and every constituency on campus has borne the burden,
but the painful reality is that there is no fat to trim. It's only
muscle."
The pain will also be felt in community colleges.
San Bernardino Community College District, which includes San
Bernardino Valley College and Crafton Hills College, will see "an
ongoing $4.3 million loss compared to last year if the taxes do not
pass, assuming there are no increases or decreases in future budget
years, which is unlikely, because something always changes
year-to-year," said Charlie Ng, the district's vice chancellor of fiscal
services.
If Prop. 30 fails, the district is prepared to cut course
offerings in the spring semester, he said. But officials aren't waiting
for the ax to fall before making changes.
"We currently have in place a selective hiring freeze
generating savings in wages and benefits, we have reorganized and
downsized administrative staff designed to generate savings in wages and
benefits," Ng said. "We recently completed a `solar farm' installation
at Crafton Hills College designed to save in utilities expenses."
There's a lot at stake, officials said.
"If Prop. 30 does not pass, it will dramatically affect all
community colleges, including Chaffey College," Chaffey spokeswoman
Peggy Cartwright said.
If it fails, the school will enroll 3,000 fewer students and
offer 250 fewer classes, eliminate the summer 2013 session and reduce
the school's budget by $4.4 million annually.
"There is no way to predict what will happen in future years,"
she said, "other than if Prop. 30 fails, it is not a one-time reduction
in funding; the reduction continues to future years."
In the High Desert, Victor Valley College is looking at a $2.9
million midyear cut if Proposition 30 fails. The budget will be cut to
$42 million, down from $51 million at the beginning of the school year.
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